“As for the monetary policy, the National Bank will leave the refinancing rate unchanged at the meeting scheduled for this week; The easing of the monetary policy will start from May.
The current decline in international commodity prices suggests that consumer price inflation in Georgia will return to the 3% target in July or earlier, which is mainly the result of a decline in import inflation. 
In terms of demand, it should be noted that, in addition to the base effect, the relatively weak February export index was caused by the drop in the export of ferroalloys and fertilizers. Indeed, without these two products, exports would have increased by 36.1% instead of 6.3%. Thus, foreign demand is still strong for now, however, if prices for these commodity categories do not recover, the negative impact of ferroalloys and fertilizers on the economic growth in 2023 could be as much as 1%. 
In addition to prices, the negative contribution of individual products, specifically copper, to imports was also significant. However, in February and March, the indicators of cashless payments through TBC channels still indicate strong local demand. Also, mainly at the expense of lower inflation, although some improvement in real credit activity is also noteworthy,” - TBC Capital's chief economist said.
Despite the TBC Capital's expectation of a rather sharp reduction in inflation, next week, the Monetary Policy Committee may postpone the rate cut until May. In our opinion, in such a case, the focus will be on inflation without imported products and the recent increase in international uncertainty," – the TBC Capital's report reads.
To be reminded, the refinancing rate is at 11%; In February, the annual inflation amounted to 8.1%.