At the end of 2022, Georgia’s economic growth may be 12.2%, inflation rate - 7.4%, and refinancing rate - 10%

At the end of 2022, Georgia’s economic growth may be 12.2%, inflation rate - 7.4%, and refinancing rate - 10% - TBC Capital

18/07/2022

17:21

Economic

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“Unlike the net effect of the factor in slowing the global economic growth and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, material disruptions to economic activity due to rising infection rates are not yet accounted for in the baseline scenario,” - this was mentioned in the weekly update of the Chief Economist of TBC Capital.

"With these assumptions, the real economic growth estimate for 2022 is about 12.2%. Our expectations regarding the exchange rate of GEL are also unchanged. As for the dynamics of inflation, taking the additional decrease in international commodity prices into account, the forecast published last week has improved again.

In particular, it seems that from the current 12.8%, by the end of the year, inflation rate may decrease not to 8.5%, but even to 7.4%.

Taking the strong net inflows into account, this scenario indicates a reduction of the refinancing rate from 11% per day to around 10% by the end of the year," - the report states.

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