TBC Capital considers a 105% increase in tourism revenues this year as realistic. According to the Investment Bank, the indicators of foreign trade, tourism and remittances for June still indicate strong foreign exchange inflows. Although the recovery rate of tourism slowed down compared to 2019, this was the result of a high base effect. In the following months, tourism revenues expressed by the same figure will significantly accelerate due to the 2019 ban imposed on flights by Russia, which is already visible in the indicators of expenses by TBC channels. Overall, a recovery to 105% by 2022 seems realistic.
Unlike the net effect of slowing the global economic growth and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, material disruptions to economic activity due to rising infection rates are not yet considered in the baseline scenario. With these assumptions, the real economic growth estimate for 2022 is about 12.2%.
As for the dynamics of inflation, taking the additional decrease in international commodity prices into account, the forecast published last week has improved again. In particular, it seems that, by the end of the year, inflation may decrease not to 8.5%, but even to 7.4% from the current 12.8%. Taking the strong net inflows into account, this scenario indicates a reduction in the refinancing rate from 11% per day to around 10% by the end of the year", - TBC Capital notes.
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