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Georgia's real GDP growth is expected to be 6.1% in 2022, while the inflation is also likely to decline in the next 6 months, compared to the same period last year. This is mentioned in the PMCG (Policy and Management Consulting Group) survey, which was conducted in June 2022 and was attended by 60 Georgian experts.
According to the results of the survey, in the second quarter of 2022, the economic climate of Georgia improved both in the first quarter of 2022 and in the second quarter of 2021. More specifically, the Georgian lari is currently overvalued against the US dollar, the euro and the Russian ruble, and undervalued against the Turkish lira exchange rate. Exports are likely to increase less than imports, leading to a deterioration in the trade balance over the next six months.
"94% of economists surveyed agree with the decision made by the National Bank of Georgia on May 11, 2022 to maintain a strict monetary policy and leave the monetary policy rate unchanged at 11%. In addition, economists have speculated about where the Georgian economy would suffer the most damage in the long run, since it was already possible to assess the immediate effects of the war. 94% of respondents think that this conflict will deal a significant blow to Georgia's food security. Also, a large proportion of economists (71%) believe that exports are the channel through which this war may cause significant damage to the Georgian economy in the long run. At the same time, respondents are less likely to expect that the war will affect the Georgian economy in terms of exchange rates and remittances. 65% of economists believe that Georgia's dependence on Russia in the tourism sector is higher.
59% of respondents believe that Georgia's food dependence on Russia is high; 59% think that exports from Georgia are significantly dependent on the Russian market. Besides, respondents were asked to assess the potential strategic opportunities, which, in addition to the negative impact, also arose for Georgia in the light of the geopolitical shifts that occurred as a result of the Russia-Ukraine war. 82% of respondents think that Georgia will benefit the most from using the opportunity to accelerate its integration with the European Union," - the survey says.
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