Currently, most of the oil is exported from Kazakhstan via the pipeline, running from the minefield located in western Kazakhstan to the Novorossiysk oil terminal in the Black Sea. The capacity of the pipeline owned by the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) is about 60 million tons per year.

Novorossiysk is located just 200 kilometers from the Ukrainian port of Mariupol, where a fierce fighting is now taking place. For this reason, oil tankers benefit from a "war risk insurance premium," which, according to the US news agency S&P Global Platts, is quite high. This became a deterrent for buyers after Russia had invaded Ukraine.

According to Platts, cargo carriers are canceling pre-orders for the transportation of oil by tankers from Novorossiysk. One of the main destinations for oil exported from the terminal is the Ukrainian port of Odessa, from where it enters the European pipeline network. Since Russia is bombing Odessa and the latter is the target of its aggression, this route is practically closed.

Thus, the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline may become an alternative route for Kazakhstan, which runs from Azerbaijan via Georgia to the Turkish Mediterranean Sea.

The maximum capacity of this route is 50 million tons per year, which is intended for the transportation of oil of Baku via the Caspian Sea. However, compared to the CPC pipeline, it is logistically relatively complex and, therefore, more expensive. Nevertheless, there is a place for the Kazakh oil on the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline.

The point is that from January 2021, Ankara increased the transit fee from $ 0.55 to $ 1.50-2.00 per barrel. Despite the increased demand for oil products in the post-covid-19 period, the volume of oil pumped through this line last year decreased by about 4% compared to 2020, and by 22% compared to 2018.

Based on the Turkish state pipeline operator Botaş, which operates the Turkish section of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan, oil volume last year was only 55% of the pipeline's capacity, meaning that 22.5 million tons of capacity remained unused. This volume fully satisfies most of Kazakhstan's exports, which are currently being shipped to Novorossiysk.

The American Chevron is operating the Kazakh giant Tengiz minefield through the Caspian pipeline. Although the oil prices worldwide have reached their highest level since 2008, Kazakhstan's oil prices have fallen as a result of the war ongoing in Ukraine.