Georgia’s nominal GDP is expected to surpass GEL 104 billion in 2025, according to TBC Capital’s latest macroeconomic update. The investment bank reported that economic growth reached 6.4% in the third quarter of the year, slightly below the preliminary estimate of 6.5%, reflecting a base effect from the previous year. Despite this, seasonally adjusted real GDP showed acceleration compared to the prior quarter.

TBC Capital expects economic growth in November to edge above October’s 6% rate, while full-year growth for 2025 is projected to normalize at around 7.3%. Nominal GDP increased by 11.4% year-on-year in the third quarter and by 12.3% over the first nine months of the year.

Looking ahead to 2026, the outlook is closely tied to developments in the Russia–Ukraine conflict. A peaceful resolution could partially reverse the trade flows that have shifted since 2022. TBC Capital highlights several supportive factors, including a lower risk premium, strong regional economic growth, potential declines in consumer goods prices, and a stronger euro, all of which would help support the Georgian lari. Under these conditions, economic growth is expected to stabilize at around 4.5% in 2026.

In 2025, the main drivers of economic growth were the information and communication and education sectors. Over the longer term, compared with 2019, the strongest growth has been recorded in information and communication, transportation, and trade, underscoring the ongoing structural transformation of Georgia’s economy.